Kenya comes of age, Uganda will inevitably follow - in 2016!

Now Kenyans are living under a new order, one they have chosen for themselves. May their troublesome past not haunt them but just be remembered for academic purposes, and as lessons for the neighbours whose political future is not yet a settled issue.

From the past players, it is difficult not to admire the skills of self-proclaimed professor of politics, Mzee wa Kazi Daniel Toroitich arap Moi.

The old man so mastered the art of using opponents’ disunity that now as he approaches the century mark of a life lived to the full, he can smile back in reflective content as newer African leaders try to take a leaf or two from his book.

In the face of a disorganised opposition in the mid 1990s, Moi actually enjoyed more power than during the single-party era because this time he was no longer solely to blame when things went wrong.

One bishop who was a top critic of Moi was so frustrated with the opposition failure to unite that he prayed openly to God to make Moi lock them up without trial so they could come to their senses.

And as the donor sanctions against his government bit hard in the early 90s, the “caring” Moi was there to lament with the masses at the pain caused by the “heartless” opposition that had persuaded the donors to punish innocent Kenyans.

As he was preparing to retire, Moi, who had not got along with his younger neighbour Yoweri Museveni in the 1980s, became a more frequent visitor to Uganda, where both opposition and government are reading his textbook better.

Still, Uganda’s disunited opposition is set to face a worse defeat at Museveni’s hand next February than in 1996 when they all backed Paul Ssemogerere or 2001 and 2006 when they backed Kizza Besigye.

Museveni is increasingly looking a more reliable option even to those who did not support him earlier.

The general mood in Kampala is that the opposition should try to win a few more seats in parliament so they can work to influence policy.

Taking power outright seems to be out of question for now.
It looks like a replay of Kenya’s first three multiparty elections. Moi defeated a split FORD in 1992 and whipped the more fragmented opposition again in 1997.

Museveni actually flew to Nairobi and explained the arithmetic to a public rally, showing them that the opposition had got more votes.

But things changed in 2002. Many outside Kenya do not even remember that the man a united opposition defeated in 2002 was called Uhuru Kenyatta and that Mzee Moi was never a candidate in that election.

If Museveni does not amend the constitution to remove the 75-year age limit so as to sail into his octogenarian years while still at State House, then 2016 is the year a united opposition can defeat his “project,” the way the Kenyans did to Uhuru Kenyatta when the Constitution did not allow Moi to stand again.

For now, the Museveni Victory Party committee had better start organising the February 2011 bash. I suggest they invite Mzee Moi as guest of honour. But as Uganda follows Kenya’s democratisation path, I pray that we miss out the 2007 election violence phase!